Sam Altman and Dario Amodei: which CEO will come out ahead in the Wall Street race? Jens Schicke/IMAGO/Julien De Rosa/AFP via DW It could be a Hollywood script, but it's real. Two ambitious nerds who, with tough strategies and a lot of persistence, compete for supremacy in Artificial Intelligence (AI). There is no shortage of twists either. Dario Amodei, head of Claude creator Anthropic, recently called for a pause on AI development, warning that humans could lose control. Download GloboPop to watch short vertical videos from Globo And this just a few days after submitting documents to the American markets regulatory authority, the SEC, to take the company public on the stock exchange (IPO). Thus, the creators of Claude are ahead of those responsible for ChatGPT, from OpenAI, who only announced their debut on Wall Street and submitted the necessary documentation a week later. The moment seems favorable. Stocks are on the rise and AI is in the spotlight. Furthermore, Anthropic is currently valued at 965 billion dollars, while OpenAI is valued at 852 billion. An IPO could take both to the group of trillion-dollar companies — something that today only giants like Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Tesla have achieved. For comparison, the largest German company today, Siemens, is worth around 230 billion dollars. What is so much money for? Consultancy Gartner estimates that global spending on artificial intelligence will continue to grow strongly, exceeding US$2.5 trillion this year. The majority of these investments are in AI infrastructure, especially in the construction and rental of large data centers, responsible for providing the necessary computing power. So far, Anthropic and OpenAI have raised funds through investment rounds, in which companies and funds bet on startups with growth potential. According to analyst Harrison Rolfes, from PitchBook, OpenAI has raised US$185.9 billion since its founding, while Anthropic raised US$126.8 billion. Who is in front? For many financial experts, Anthropic has better prospects in the market. “Anthropic has the best story for an IPO — and it is above all the numbers that convince,” says Rolfes. The company is expected to earn around 47 billion dollars this year, compared to OpenAI's 30 billion, even though it has raised fewer funds. Another factor is the focus on the corporate market. "More than a thousand companies already spend more than a million dollars a year with Anthropic", highlights the analyst. OpenAI dominates the consumer segment with ChatGPT, which has more than 900 million weekly users — but the majority use the service for free. “Monetizing such a large base of free users is a challenge,” says Rolfes. Pedro Domingos, professor emeritus of computer science at the University of Washington, agrees. "Anthropic is more advanced in business services, and that's where most of the money will come from. But that could change quickly." According to him, the company has more demand, but less computing capacity. A dispute of egos Claude is usually used more by companies and ChatGPT, by private users Matteo Della Torre/NurPhoto/picture alliance via DW Rivalry also involves big egos. In 2021, Dario Amodei left OpenAI because he disagreed with the direction under Sam Altman — too focused on money and not enough on accountability. Since then, he has positioned Anthropic as an advocate for safer, more regulated AI. Amodei also imposed limits on military use: Claude should not be used for mass surveillance or automated weapons systems. This led the Pentagon to classify Anthropic as a "supply chain security risk" — a drastic measure normally applied to foreign companies. Sam Altman is trying to fill this space: OpenAI plans to provide software to the Pentagon. As a result, your company has increasingly assumed the role of "villain" in the dispute — something ironic, considering that OpenAI was founded in 2015 with the mission of developing AI in an ethical and responsible way. Experts believe that Amodei's stance also has a marketing component. For Domingos, rapid success and growing pressure could shake Anthropic's image as "the good company". "Difficult decisions will come, and some employees may leave disappointed — as happened when Amodei and others left OpenAI." Race for AGI According to Domingos, the companies' ultimate objective is to develop so-called Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), capable of carrying out any human cognitive task. "Whoever gets there first will have an advantage that is virtually impossible to achieve." Still, Rolfes relativizes: "Getting there first doesn't mean winning. To truly profit from AI, you need broad adoption, business trust and good margins." Ultimately, he says, the dispute will be decided by which technology will be adopted by the largest companies in the world. The race for leadership in artificial intelligence, therefore, is still far from over.