SpaceX is expected to debut this Friday (12) on the New York Stock Exchange valued at around US$1.75 trillion (R$8.93 trillion). With this market value, Elon Musk's company would occupy eighth place among the most valuable companies in the world. Wall Street investors' strong bet on SpaceX may seem contradictory. Despite being about to carry out the biggest IPO in history, with an estimated fundraising of US$75 billion (R$382.6 billion), the company still operates in the red. 🗒️ Do you have any reporting suggestions? Send it to g1 In 2025, revenue of US$18.7 billion (R$95.3 billion) was not enough to avoid a net loss of US$4.9 billion (R$24.9 billion). Experts consulted by g1 explain that the optimism on the part of investors is explained by the change in the way the market views SpaceX. The company is no longer seen as just a rocket manufacturer and is now associated with the potential for integration between xAI's artificial intelligence operations and Starlink's global satellite internet network services. "Musk created a telecommunications 'super company'. Starlink alone ended up becoming a global business that is today larger than the space operation itself in terms of revenue", says Pedro Waengertner, CEO of ACE Ventures. According to Rylan Chase, market analyst at EBC Financial Group, investors betting on the company are paying in advance for Starlink's connectivity expansion potential, the future monetization of the Starship rocket and the artificial intelligence infrastructure thesis created by the combination with xAI. The most skeptical fear that Elon Musk's plans are too ambitious to meet expectations. In the document preparing for its public debut, SpaceX states that it intends to build a permanent base on the Moon and, in the long term, establish a colony on Mars capable of housing up to 1 million people. The aspirations don't stop there: the company also plans to develop orbital data processing centers powered by solar energy and boost a "space economy" based on factories, energy systems and infrastructure operating outside Earth. You want to wake up in the morning and think that the future is going to be great — and that's what being a space civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and thinking that it will be better than the past. And I can't imagine anything more exciting than going out there and being among the stars. SpaceX IPO could put company in the global top 10 Art/g1 The bigger the jump, the bigger the fall Even though SpaceX is expected to make an impressive debut on the stock market, its shares could suffer severe blows over time. As many investors are betting on ambitious plans for the company's future, any disappointment could drop its market value. In the assessment of Chase, from EBC Financial Group, investors are not just looking at the company's current results. Anyone who agrees to pay US$135 (R$688.64) per share is targeting several growth fronts at the same time, and not just the space business. 🚀 SpaceX started to bring together telecommunications, artificial intelligence and technological infrastructure businesses in the same company. 📡 Starlink became the company's main source of revenue, while other projects became part of its growth strategy for the coming years. 🤖 xAI works as the company's artificial intelligence arm, integrating the Grok chatbot with data from the social network X and Starlink's infrastructure. Still, the analyst assesses that the projected market value for the company is high, even compared to companies that grow quickly. According to his calculations, the valuation is equivalent to around 109 times the entire revenue obtained by the company last year. “It’s an exceptionally high starting point for any large IPO,” he says. But many analysts believe that this was the natural path. Álvaro Machado Dias, professor at the Federal University of São Paulo (Unifesp) and specialist in artificial intelligence, states that the company has reached a point where its ambitions require a volume of resources that are difficult to obtain only through private rounds of investment. 🔎 An IPO is the first public offering of a company. In this process, the company sells part of its shares and starts to be traded on the stock exchange. The objective is to raise funds to expand operations, invest in projects or reduce debt. According to Machado Dias, the revenue generated by Starlink coexists with projects that require high investments and can take years to yield a return. In other words, if Starlink helps sustain the company's revenue, the other projects help explain why SpaceX continues to record billion-dollar losses. "Starship, orbital data centers and the move towards lunar industrialization demand the kind of capital that only the public market can provide." Does SpaceX cash have a solution? Musk at SpaceX Star Base in Brownsville, Texas REUTERS/Adrees Latif/File photo The assessment by Jan-Erik Asplund, co-founder of Sacra, a company specializing in market research for startups and private companies, points in the same direction: SpaceX uses the resources generated by launches and Starlink to finance a strategy that goes beyond the expansion of its current services. 🌐 Among the projects he mentioned is Terafab, a chip factory planned for Texas that could cost up to US$119 billion (R$607 billion). The initiative is part of a broader strategy in which the company seeks to control different stages of its technological chain, from semiconductor manufacturing to satellite operation. 🛰️ Another focus is the so-called orbital computing, a concept that provides for the processing of data directly in space through a future network of satellites aimed at artificial intelligence applications. “The company uses cash flow from launches and Starlink to finance its long-term vision,” summarizes Asplund. Therefore, the company's trillion-dollar valuation depends mainly on what it will be able to deliver in the coming years. Franco Granda, senior research analyst at PitchBook, reinforces the view that the company needs to present itself as a "platform that brings together connectivity, space transport and artificial intelligence". According to him, investors' bets are based on three major expectations for the future: 📡 Expand Starlink beyond satellite internet One of the main bets is the technology known as "direct-to-cell", which allows ordinary cell phones to be connected directly to the company's satellites, without the need for antennas or other specific equipment. The analyst estimates that this market could reach 1.1 billion users by 2040 and generate more than US$42 billion (R$214.2 billion) per year. In this scenario, the analyst assesses, Starlink would no longer be just a satellite internet network and would start to play a broader role in the digital ecosystem, offering connection to cell phones, vehicles and other devices. Gif shows Starship taking off Reproduction 🚀 Make access to space “cheaper” The second bet is linked to Starship, the company's new generation rocket. The consultancy's expectation is that the total reuse of the spacecraft will reduce launch costs by up to 80%, allowing more cargo to be transported into space at a fraction of the current cost. This could expand Starlink's capacity and enable businesses that currently face the high cost of reaching space. Therefore, according to Granda, an important part of the value attributed to SpaceX is linked to the expectation that Starship will help boost the space economy in the coming years. 🤖 Build infrastructure for artificial intelligence The third bet involves xAI and the artificial intelligence projects brought together by the group. According to information released by the company itself in its IPO prospectus, the artificial intelligence division generated revenue of US$3.2 billion (R$16.3 billion) in 2025, but recorded an operating loss of US$6.3 billion (R$32.1 billion). The numbers reflect the operation's strong investment pace. Spending on infrastructure and expanding processing capacity alone consumed more than US$12.7 billion (R$64.8 billion) in the period. ➡️ Among the projects are large data processing centers and initiatives that plan to take part of this infrastructure to space. For Granda, SpaceX's trillion-dollar valuation is less linked to current results and more to the expected return on these projects in the coming years. “The price may seem expensive just looking at the current numbers, but investors are paying today for the 2030 economy,” he summarizes. The trillion-dollar gear behind SpaceX Art/g1