Government calculates impact of R$22.4 billion with renegotiation of agricultural debts in 2027; goal of accounts in the blue would be more difficult
⚡ Quick Summary
The Ministry of Finance estimated this Wednesday (17) that the rural debt renegotiation project, approved by the Senate, will imply a new credit line of R$ 200 billion, considering debts subject to classification.
The Ministry of Finance estimated this Wednesday (17) that the rural debt renegotiation project, approved by the Senate, will imply a new credit line of R$ 200 billion, considering debts subject to classification.
🎯 The benefits will be for producers affected by extreme weather events or economic impacts resulting from international geopolitical conflicts. (understand how it will work)
As the proposal underwent changes in the Senate, the text will have to undergo new deliberation by deputies before being sanctioned by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).
"Based on the volume of resources for the new credit line of R$200 billion and the assumptions above, the total cost for the Union, with an impact on the primary surplus due to the equalization of interest and charges, could reach R$139.8 billion over 13 years, with R$22.4 billion in 2027", added the economic area, in a press release.
Most difficult goal
In the Budget Guidelines Law (PLDO) project for the year 2027, sent to the National Congress in April, the government proposed a surplus target for its accounts next year.
🔎The LDO is the standard that defines the government's goals and priorities for the following year. It needs to be approved by Congress and guides the preparation of the Annual Budget Law (LOA), which represents the Budget for the year. The proposal still needs to be approved by the Legislature.
If the fiscal objective is achieved, if the difference between what is intended to be collected and spent is positive, it will be the first result in the black since 2022.
The proposed target is a positive result of 0.5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), equivalent to R$73.2 billion, with a tolerance band of 0.25 percentage points up or down - that is, the surplus can vary between R$36.6 billion and R$109.8 billion.
Furthermore, R$65.7 billion in government spending on court orders (judicial sentences) and projects in the areas of defense, health and education may be left out of the rule.
In practice, therefore, the government will be able to have a primary deficit of up to R$29.1 billion without the target being formally missed.
But the economic team projects a positive result of R$8 billion in 2027 because it does not foresee the full reduction of court orders in the fiscal target.
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