Flávio Bolsonaro loses support among evangelicals, women, young people and in the Southeast, shows Quaest
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Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), pre-candidate for the Presidency of the Republic Carlos Moura/Agência Senado The PL pre-candidate for the Presidency of the Republic, Flávio Bolsonaro, lost support among evangelicals, women, young people and in the Southeast region, show data from the Quaest survey obtained by g1.
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), pre-candidate for the Presidency of the Republic
Carlos Moura/Agência Senado
The PL pre-candidate for the Presidency of the Republic, Flávio Bolsonaro, lost support among evangelicals, women, young people and in the Southeast region, show data from the Quaest survey obtained by g1. The breakdown by region, gender, age, income, education and religion helps explain the change in scenario captured this week, when President Lula opened a 6-point lead over Lula in the 2nd round.
Since March, Lula and Flávio appeared in a technical draw in the Quaest 2nd round simulation. Now in June, the PT member took the lead, with 44% of voting intentions against 38% for Flávio.
Between one research and another, Flávio's relationship with the imprisoned banker Daniel Vorcaro came to light. The senator received R$61 million from the owner of Master bank under the pretext of financing Jair Bolsonaro's biopic, "Dark Horse".
From May to June, Donald Trump's United States also announced two measures that impact Brazil: the classification of the criminal factions CV and PCC as terrorist organizations and the increase in tariffs on Brazilian products. The two decisions came after a visit by Flávio Bolsonaro to Trump and high-ranking members of the American government.
Where Flávio Bolsonaro lost support
Data from Quaest show a loss of support for Flávio Bolsonaro in the Southeast regions and in the Central-West/North aggregate. The Southeast is home to two of the largest electoral colleges in Brazil: São Paulo and Minas Gerais.
"Regionally, Lula's opening of an advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro in the second round scenario appears clearly in the Southeast and in the Central-West/North aggregate. In both cases, Flávio's drop is greater than Lula's advance, which suggests a net loss of the senator's support in these segments", says the director of Quaest, Felipe Nunes.
In the Southeast, Flávio Bolsonaro has been falling since April. The senator, who was already ahead with a 12-point advantage, left the leadership in the region and is now in a technical tie with Lula. The president has shown an upward trend since April.
Voting intentions for president in the 2nd round - Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro in the Southeast
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In the Central-West/North aggregate, Flávio Bolsonaro fluctuated 8 points down. With Lula on an upward trend since April, the scenario also changed to a technical draw. Last month, the PL presidential candidate was 14 points ahead. Today, it is just 2.
Voting intention for president in the 2nd round - Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro in the Center-West/North
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Change among young people, women and evangelicals
Data from Quaest show President Lula with a numerical advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro among all age groups measured. The senator lost his advantage in the only stratum in which he led: people aged between 16 and 34. See the numbers:
Voting intention for president in the 2nd round - Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro among people aged 16 to 34
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In the age group between 35 and 59 years old, Lula maintained 44% of voting intentions, and Flávio fluctuated from 40% to 38%. Among people over 60, the president went from 46% to 44% and Flávio, from 38% to 37%.
"Among the age groups, the group from 16 to 34 years old is the strongest example of the turnaround. After three consecutive rounds with Flávio's numerical advantage, Lula takes the lead in this segment", says Felipe Nunes.
The female electorate appears to be a historic challenge for the Bolsonaro family, and the events of May resulted in less favorable numbers for Flávio, with the expansion of Lula's advantage in this group. Check the numbers:
Voting intention for president in the 2nd round - Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro among women
Art/g1
Among men, Flávio has a numerical advantage over Lula, with 44% against 41% for the PT member. As the margin of error in this stratum is 3 points plus or minus, the situation is a technical tie - in May, the senator led among men with an 8 point advantage. Another stratum in which the PL pre-candidate lost strength was among evangelicals, with a drop of 9 points. Flávio still leads in this group, but the advantage over Lula decreased from 37 to 21 points from May to June. See the numbers:
Voting intention for president in the 2nd round - Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro among evangelicals
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Movement according to income and education
Flávio Bolsonaro fluctuated downwards among voters with incomes of more than 2 minimum wages and those who attended at least high school.
Among people who earn between 2 and 5 minimum wages, the numerical advantage was reversed from Flávio to Lula. Check the numbers:
Voting intention for president in the 2nd round - Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro between 2 and 5 minimum wages
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Flávio went from 51% to 46% among voters who earn more than 5 minimum wages. Still, the senator is 12 points ahead of Lula, who maintained 34% in this group.
In relation to education, Lula leads with 7 points among people with primary education and reached a technical tie in the other subdivisions, which were led by Flávio until April.
Among voters with high school education, the PT candidate has been on an upward trend for two months and the PL pre-candidate has been on a downward trend. Now, Flávio has 41% and Lula, 40%.
The biggest movement was among those who attended Higher Education. Flávio Bolsonaro led with 15 points in May. Now, he is just 3 points ahead of Lula, in a technical draw. Check the numbers:
Voting intention for president in the 2nd round - Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro among people with higher education
Art/g1
The director of Quaest, Felipe Nunes, points out that Flávio's loss of support occurs in segments that do not necessarily identify with Lula.
"The research indicates that Lula's opening of an advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro in the second round scenario is associated with a loss of traction for Flávio in segments outside the Lulist core, especially among independent voters. This is relevant data to monitor in the next rounds, because it may indicate a change in the behavior of groups that are less ideologically aligned", says Nunes.
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