What the June Quaest survey shows One of the main movements captured by the June Quaest survey, released this Wednesday (10), occurred among the so-called independent voters, those who do not identify themselves as Lulistas, Bolsonaristas, left-wing or right-wing. According to the director of Quaest, Felipe Nunes, this group "exchanged Flávio for Lula". This electorate corresponds to a third of the total and can decide the dispute. Independents are voters who consider themselves neither right-wing, left-wing, Bolsonarists nor Lulistas. Between May and June, Lula surpassed Flávio Bolsonaro in this segment and opened a 13 percentage point advantage in the 2nd round simulation among pre-candidates for the Presidency. 📱Bookmark g1 on Google and follow the news of the day Independents are voters who do not identify as Lulistas, Bolsonaristas, left-wing or right-wing. According to Quaest, this group represents 32% of the Brazilian electorate. When analyzing the composition of the electorate, the consultancy concludes that independents have the potential to decide the election. This is because the two main political camps appear tied in size: 33% of voters define themselves as Lulista (19%) or non-Lulista leftist (14%); another 33% define themselves as Bolsonarist (12%) or non-Bolsonarist right-wing (21%). In this scenario, independents function as a decisive group to break the tie between the two poles. "These pragmatic independents are less ideological. For them, democracy is very important, as are public security, corruption and reducing bureaucracy", says the director of Quaest, Felipe Nunes. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) Reproduction Independents in the 1st round Survey data released this week shows that, among independent voters, 28% say they will vote for Lula in the first round, while 14% prefer Flávio Bolsonaro. Next comes Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), with 6%; Aécio Neves (PSDB) and Romeu Zema (Novo), with 4% each; Renan Santos (Missão), Augusto Cury (Avante) and Samara Martins (UP), with 2%; and Joaquim Barbosa (DC), with 1%. Among independents, 19% declare themselves undecided. Another 18% say they intend to vote blank or invalid, or that they should not go to the polls. Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro, Renan Santos, Caiado and Zema Disclosure and reproduction The Quaest survey was commissioned by Genial Investimentos and interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 or over between the 5th and 8th of June. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points, and the confidence level is 95%. Registration with the TSE is BR-07661/2026. Independents in the 2nd round In the second round, there was an important change in relation to the May survey. Among independent voters, voting intentions for Lula rose from 29% to 37%, an increase of eight percentage points. In the same period, Flávio Bolsonaro fell from 31% to 24%, a reduction of seven points. Quaest survey of voting intentions in the 2nd round between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro considering only voters who say they are independent. Art/g1 According to Nunes, the majority of independent voters are "discouraged, apathetic and are abstaining from the electoral process. Of the 32% of independents, only 10% tend to vote in the election", he says. In the most recent survey, the percentage of those who will not vote went from 35% to 30%, and those who were undecided went from 5% to 9%. Research with all audiences The Quaest survey released this Wednesday (10) with all political groups shows that President Lula (PT) leads with 44% of voting intentions in a possible 2nd round against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), who appears with 38%. There is no longer a technical tie between them. In the previous survey, released in May, Lula had 42%, and Flávio Bolsonaro, 41%. In April, it was the senator who appeared numerically ahead, with 42% against Lula's 40%. In March, the two were numerically tied, with 41% each. Quaest: Voting intentions for the second round - Lula X Flávio Bolsonaro (June/2026) Art/g1 The survey marks a change in a situation that had shown a technical tie since March. Now, Lula opens up a six-point lead over his opponent. Still, the scenario is fiercer than it was when the Quaest survey series began, in August 2025. At that time, Lula had a sixteen point lead. In December, it dropped to ten points. It was at the end of the year that Flávio Bolsonaro announced that he would be a candidate.