Quaest releases voting intention survey for president The Quaest survey released this Wednesday (10) shows that the presidential race remains polarized between Lula (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and that the dispute between the names trying to establish a third way alternative is embroiled, with news: Renan Santos (Missão) now appears numerically ahead of Romeu Zema (Novo), with 3% of voting intentions, and tied with Ronaldo Caiado (PSD); Aécio Neves (PSDB) was included for the first time among the pre-candidates and obtained 2%, the same as Zema; As the margin of error is two percentage points, everyone is technically tied and far from Flávio Bolsonaro, who has 29% and continues to be the main representative of the opposition to Lula, who leads with 39%. Joaquim Barbosa (DC), former minister of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), was mentioned by 1% of respondents in his debut in the survey. It is the same index as Augusto Cury (Avante) and Samara Martins (UP). Quaest: Voting intention for president in the 1st round (June/2026) Art/g1 Independent and right-wing votes Among independent voters — those who consider themselves neither right-wing, left-wing, Bolsonarist nor Lulista — Lula also leads with 28% and Flávio has 14%. Next, Caiado (6%), Aécio (4%), Zema (4%), Renan (2%), Augusto Cury (2%), Samara (2%) and Joaquim Barbosa (1%). Why doesn't the 3rd way take off in Brazilian elections? See history In the dispute for votes from the non-Bolsonarist right, Flávio has 59% and Renan Santos has 11%, numerically above Lula (10%) and Caiado (6%). Among Bolsonarists, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro inherits his father's estate and appears isolated with 94% of voting intentions. Lula is cited by 1% and the rest do not score. “Bolsonarism remains firm with Flávio, but the non-Bolsonarist right appears much less supportive of him in the 1st round”, says Felipe Nunes, director of Quaest. Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro, Renan Santos, Caiado and Zema Disclosure and reproduction 2nd shift simulations This Wednesday's research is the first by Quaest after the revelation of Flávio Bolsonaro's conversations with arrested banker Daniel Vorcaro and the announcement of measures by the Trump administration to tax Brazilian products and classify criminal factions as terrorist organizations. In the 2nd round scenario, Lula now leads with a six-point advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro. The technical draw scenario that was observed in recent months no longer exists. Quaest: Voting intentions for the second round - Lula X Flávio Bolsonaro (June/2026) Art/g1 Renan Santos has been improving his performance, but remains behind Lula. The president would win by 45% to 31%. "The one who has improved is Renan Santos, who reached 31%, his best performance in the historical series. But he still appears less competitive than Flávio", says Felipe Nunes. Quaest: Voting intentions for the second round - Lula X Renan Santos (June/2026) Art/g1 Lula would also defeat Zema (45% to 35%) and Caiado (45% to 35%). There is stability in relation to previous months' research. Quaest: Voting intentions for the second round - Lula X Ronaldo Caiado (June/2026) Art/g1 Quaest: Voting intentions for the second round - Lula X Romeu Zema (June/2026) Art/g1