Lula during a conversation with journalists in Brasília Adriano Machado/Reuters The World Bank reduced, this Thursday (11), its growth forecast for the Brazilian economy in 2026 to 1.9%, a reduction of 0.1 percentage point (p.p.) compared to the January projection. For the coming years, the institution's projection was 2% for 2027 — a drop of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous forecast — and 2.2% for 2028. The information comes from the bank's biannual “Global Economic Perspectives” report. 🗒️ Do you have any reporting suggestions? Send it to g1 Projections for the global economy also worsened. According to the World Bank, the growth forecast increased to 2.5% in 2026 due to the war in the Middle East. The value represents a drop compared to the January forecast, of 2.6%, and is the lowest observed since the start of the Covid pandemic at the end of 2019. The institution also stated that expansion could slow to just 1.3% if interruptions in energy supply prove to be more serious and are accompanied by significant tensions in financial markets. Now on g1 According to the report, global growth reached 2.9% in 2025, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the January estimate. Impacts of the war The World Bank also cut forecasts for two-thirds of countries as a result of the war, with the biggest cuts affecting the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and other Middle Eastern countries whose energy exports were hit hard by the conflict. The institution's perspective comes at a time when the war that began on February 28 drags on into its fourth month. The conflict has triggered a sharp rise in energy prices due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, renewed inflationary pressures around the world and fueled expectations of tighter monetary policy in many countries. Fertilizer prices have also risen sharply, raising concerns about a serious food supply crisis. Oil prices closed nearly $2 higher on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump said the country would strike Iran “very hard” if no peace deal was finalized, following one of the most significant exchanges of fire since the April ceasefire. The World Bank said its baseline forecast assumes an average Brent oil price of $94 for the year, up 36% from 2025, and that the worst energy supply disruptions would ease by the end of July, with global inflation estimated at 4%. The bank said growth could slow to 2.1% if energy supply disruptions last longer and oil prices average $115 per barrel this year, which could push inflation up to 4.4%. The outlook would worsen further, with growth slowing to just 1.3%, if the energy shock affects financial markets, resulting in lower energy prices, greater volatility and lower confidence, he said. “These risk scenarios show how quickly the outlook could deteriorate if energy and financial pressures reinforce each other,” said Ayhan Kose, deputy chief economist at the World Bank. If the energy shock triggers a financial market shock, confidence could deteriorate quickly, he said. Growth is lower than in the last decade Global growth is expected to improve to 2.8% in 2027 and 2028, but this remains 0.4 percentage points below average rates seen during the 2010s due to a number of factors, including slower population growth, weaker private investment growth, falling public investment, rising public debt and slower trade expansion, said World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill. “The world economy is much less resilient today than in 2008 and even compared to 2018,” Gill told reporters, predicting that the coming years will be marked by high political uncertainty, inflationary pressures and high interest rates. Weak growth in developing economies has stalled progress toward the income levels of advanced economies, with dozens of developing countries, excluding China and India, facing a "lost decade" in which they saw no progress in closing the per capita income gap with advanced economies, according to the report. Developing economies have been hit hardest by the war, with the bank now projecting growth of 3.6% this year — the lowest post-pandemic level — compared to 4.4% in 2025. The bank also maintained its growth forecast of 2.2% for the US economy in 2026, but stated that this number could fall to 2.1% in 2027 and 2% in 2028. The euro zone is expected to grow 0.8% in 2026, compared to 1.4% in 2025. The World Bank projected GDP growth of 4.2% in China in 2026, a downward revision of 0.2 percentage points, after 5% growth in 2025. The World Bank cut its forecast for GDP growth in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan by 2.7 percentage points to 1.6% in 2026 from 4% in 2025, but said growth in the region could recover to 5% in 2027.